1. Mitchell Johnson is the Hamlet of Australian cricket. He has of late and wherefore we know not regained all his speed, bounce and accuracy, reducing the England batting order (the tail especially) to a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours. Yet despite his recent form he has never proven to be anything but mercurial over a five-Test series. With the fate of the Ashes actually resting in his hands, the last thing Australia need is to find Johnson at the top of his mark at the WACA not preparing to fling down slings and arrows but once more in a profound moral and existential sweat as to "what kind of bowler am I". But it might happen.
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2. Who will score Australia's runs? Michael Clarke, David Warner and Brad Haddin can't all fire again (again) as they have in the first two Tests, can they? Ricky Ponting scored two centuries in his 100th Test but surely it is too much to expect Clarke to score his third century on the trot in his 100th. This means Rogers, Smith, Watson and Bailey have to score 500-600 between them to win the match. Yeah … right.
3. Kevin Pietersen will produce one match-winning performance in a series. Why not here?
4. Stuart Broad, perhaps more so than James Anderson, is a bowler who is unanswerable on his day, or rather in his session. Yes, he has already had one such moment at the Gabba. But a bouncy Perth pitch is ideal for someone of his height and high release. Plus: he's a very driven competitor and will be burning to do well.
5. Matt Prior is back in form so it is worth being reminded England has Test centurions down to number nine.
6. Class counts. Back in the 1980s the English batsmen were being pulverised into a paste by Roberts, Holding, Croft, Garner and Marshall. In response to criticism that England were bagging more ducks than a weekend in the Norfolk fens, the England skipper, David Gower, took to wearing a T-shirt bearing the words: “Form is temporary, class is permanent”. Such a view applies now. Alastair Cook (who like Clarke is celebrating his 100th test) is a top-class batsman, as is Ian Bell. KP is one of the champions of this era, Michael Carberry looks solid against pace, and the cherubic Joe Root plays Johnson as well as anybody and top-scored in Adelaide. All of which is to say they can bat even if Geoffrey Boycott reckons his mum could still score more runs than all of them with “just a stick of rhubarb".
7. England are due. Thirty-five years without a win and it has to end sometime.
8. Ben 'Bloodnut' Stokes bowls fast, too, in the low 140s, and he has steel. That said it's going to be very sunny and hot with 38 degree days forecast. If Stokes doesn't have a stroke during what is supposed to be WACA barbecue, he could get make things just as hot for the Australians.
9. Tim Bresnan will return. Beefy, belligerent Bresnan was a thorn in Australia's in the last Ashes series in England. His 45 runs in the fourth Test at Durham, enabled England to avoid setting a sub-200 fourth innings target. And you know if Johnson gives him his Zoolander pout, Bresnan will return a look that says OK, see you behind the bike sheds after stumps and I'll show you how they really make sausages matey boy.
10. Well, you can't lose. If Australia wins at Perth and regains the Ashes who cares about a few dollars? (It even feels a bit like you paid for the win.) If Australia lose, you trouser a few consoling dollars. Mad but true.
11. And the final reason? At 5-2 the odds aren't half bad.
