The man with whom Premier Mike Baird would probably least like to go head-to-head in next year's election campaign now looks almost certain to become his opponent.

Yes, he has yet to face a vote of his caucus colleagues on January 5. There is also the not insignificant detail about him not holding a lower house seat – regarded as essential for a leader of a parliamentary party.

But don't for a moment think there is too much risk in the decision to put up his hand. Plenty of negotiating has taken place behind closed doors to virtually assure his smooth ascent.

On Sunday, Foley publicly rejected the prospect that the ALP national executive would use its powers to impose him as a candidate in the seat of Auburn.

He did so for good reason: denying rank and file members a vote in his preselection would grate with many in his own left faction who have been pushing for more democracy within the ALP. Indeed, Foley himself has been vocal on the issue.

Fortunately a face-saving solution is  at hand.

The party's national executive can cancel the current preselection between sitting MP Barbara Perry and challenger Hicham Zraika – beset with claims of branchstacking by the latter – and order a new rank and file ballot.

Zraika is likely to withdraw from the new contest in favour of being given a winnable spot on the upper house ticket. His numbers would then swing behind Foley.

If Foley is elected leader on January 5 the hope is Perry will graciously bow out.

And the January 5 leadership ballot? Foley almost certainly has the required 19 votes.

Despite concerns from some in his faction about his social conservatism – including opposition to gay marriage – most of the 14 members of the left are expected to back their own.

NSW general secretary Jamie Clements – who leads the right faction – is supporting Foley into the leadership. This should ensure the five or six right faction votes needed to get him across the line.

Importantly, in a rule change following the Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi era, the factions can no longer "bind" – agree to vote as a block – in a caucus vote. This allows some on the right to split.

Of course, in the context of the task in front of the NSW Labor at the March 2015 election, that's the easy bit.

If he is elected leader Foley and the ALP still have an Everest to climb before having a chance of returning Labor to government.